探讨一下油企私有化的前景 - Leo's Utopia
探讨一下油企私有化的前景
朋友圈里石油行业的老同学赚了一篇叫做《说石油员工工资高的人,你们的良心在哪里?》的文章,我回了句“还是放开民营吧”,老同学回我“你以为民营就能解决问题了,你太天真了”。
先不要扣“天真”的帽子,大家心平气和的讨论一下。很明显没有什么手段能够“解决所有问题”,但是能够解决部分问题,能让情况有相当幅度的好转,应该也值得一试吧。
下面我就探讨一下石油公司民营化,或者说国家油企去行政化+允许民营资本进入的前景。
想象一下把几家大油企民营化的前景吧,油企去“国家安全”等特殊性之后:
一、监管和运营分离,可以有以下好处:
1. 监管层可以按照法规、不顾情面地提劳动环境要求,不至于让原帖图中的工人们野外作业时连个炊事车和宿营车都没有;
2. 管理层去行政化,不至于底层员工挣可怜的一点钱,而一个分公司高管却可以每天报销2万多的业务招待费;
3. 发改委可以进行正常的价格管制,非正常涨价时可以“约谈”;
二、市场公开竞争,可见以下几点:
1. 通过竞争倒逼企业去改进油品,油品才可能跟得上充分竞争的汽车行业的发动机品质。工信部随便一个标准要求所有车企的柴油车都要达到国IV排放,大家没办法只能去开发对应的产品,也只能按时达到要求。没办法,达不到车子就没法卖,企业就得破产。反观过来,油料呢?一个柴油国III标准论证多少年了,炼油企业简单一句“现在暂时达不到这种技术”或者“升级成本太高”就挡了N年。车企还得去研发“能喝国III油的国IV发动机”这种奇葩东西。
2. 把行业的水分挤出来。现在的油价调控的依据是迪拜、辛塔和北海布伦特等三地石油的油价,这三大油田的石油都是优质的轻质原油。而三大油企开采的却多是北非、中亚、亚洲北部这些地方的劣质高硫原油,典型的以次充好。而且,这些油井项目大分还是以国开行、中投等主权基金投资的长期石油开采合约油井,并非期货化的石油产品,跟国际油价波动根本关系不大。此外,通过自己集团的运作:采油子公司把原油高价卖给炼油子公司,炼油子公司再以略微亏损的价格向市场出售成品油。表面上看起来是在亏损,可实际上整个集团却在不正常地大幅盈利;通过充分竞争把这些不正当水分挤掉吧。
3. 引进小民营企业还可以加快行业创新。10年前,美国的原油对外依存率还非常高,但是去年开始已经实现自给自足,今年都可以出口了。这些出口的石油、天然气主要是页岩油和页岩气。开采页岩油、页岩气的技术都是最近10年这些小的民营企业通过不断的试验逐步开发出来的。反观一下国内,现在已经开始试图跟风开采页岩油气了,但石油系统“温室”里的哪个研究所敢说自己有这个技术?
……
以上内容原始资料主要来自《金融时报》和《南方周末》等报纸的公开报道及几大油企的财务报表,本人整理。
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